Political Analyst

Director of the Canada Division,

Azerbaijan Center for Strategic Studies

Introduction: The Transformation of Heydar Aliyev’s Legacy

Modern Azerbaijan’s geopolitical standing and regional power status are the logical outcomes of the consistent and adaptive development of the statehood principles laid by National Leader Heydar Aliyev. His policies based on national interests, balanced foreign relations, and the establishment of a robust economy have entered a new phase under the leadership of President Ilham Aliyev. This strategy has elevated Azerbaijan not only as a leading power in the South Caucasus but also as a strategic actor across the broader Eurasian landscape.

The purpose of this analysis is to examine Azerbaijan’s transformation from a regional exemplar to a unifying force of the Turkic world from geopolitical, economic, and ideological perspectives.

Chapter 1: The Karabakh Victory –

A Catalyst for New Geopolitical Realities

The historic victory in the Second Karabakh War was not only the restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity but also a military-political event that fundamentally reshaped the regional balance of power. This triumph led to several key outcomes:

• Rise of National Spirit and Statehood Consciousness: The victory fostered unprecedented national unity and trust in the state, forming the socio-political capital essential for future strategic objectives.

• Diplomatic Superiority: The management of the war with strategic finesse, particularly the balancing of relations with regional powers such as Russia and Türkiye, demonstrated Azerbaijan’s ability to pursue an independent foreign policy.

• A Message to the Turkic World: The Karabakh victory became a source of inspiration for the entire Turkic world, showcasing the tangible results of Azerbaijan’s strategic alliance with Türkiye and reinforcing Baku’s leadership within the Organization of Turkic States (OTS).

Chapter 2: The Struggle over Strategic Corridors – Azerbaijan’s Central Role

The driving force behind Azerbaijan’s modern geopolitics lies in its positioning at the crossroads of key transport and logistics corridors. Baku has maximized this advantage by turning two fundamental projects into strategic imperatives.

a) The Middle Corridor – Eurasia’s New Trade Artery

The Middle Corridor, which offers an alternative to routes through Russia and Iran along the China-Europe axis, is not merely an economic project but a geopolitical platform that strengthens the political and economic independence of the Turkic geography. With modern infrastructure such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and the Port of Alat, Azerbaijan functions as the heart of this corridor. This role grants Azerbaijan an indispensable status as a transit country for both East (China, Central Asia) and West (Europe).

b) The Zangezur Corridor – Unlocking a Geopolitical Knot Amid International Pressures

The Zangezur Corridor carries even deeper and more contentious geopolitical implications than the Middle Corridor:

• Physical Integration of the Turkic World: It connects mainland Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and through it, directly to Türkiye, forming a strategic land route that physically unites the historically fragmented Turkic world.

• Impact on Regional Power Dynamics: The realization of the corridor limits Iran’s influence along its northern border and forces Armenia to choose between regional integration and isolation.

• International Resistance: For these reasons, countries like the United States, France, and India oppose the project based on their geopolitical interests, while Iran views it as a direct threat to its national security and regional influence. Tehran’s attempts to brand the project as “Zionist” or “Pan-Turkist” are thinly veiled ideological covers for its geopolitical anxieties.

Despite external pressure, Azerbaijan continues to advocate for the corridor’s opening as a historical necessity and a demand grounded in international law.

Chapter 3: Ideological Diplomacy and

Soft Power – The South Azerbaijan Factor

Azerbaijan’s growing power is having a significant ideological impact beyond its borders, particularly on the nearly 50 million Azerbaijani Turks living within Iran. This process is being led not through military confrontation, but via soft power and ideological diplomacy:

• Stimulating National Awakening: The Karabakh Victory and Azerbaijan’s international achievements have inspired a rise in national identity awareness among youth in South Azerbaijan, strengthening their resolve to fight for language and cultural rights. President Ilham Aliyev’s recognition as the leader of the global Azerbaijani community has become a symbolic expression of this process.

• Strategic Pressure on the Iranian Regime: Baku’s increasing openness in raising South Azerbaijan-related issues on international platforms, and its emphasis on shared cultural and historical ties, presents Tehran with a major domestic challenge and foreign policy dilemma. The Iranian regime is gradually realizing that the national movement in South Azerbaijan can no longer be suppressed using outdated assimilationist tactics.

• A Strategic Deterrent Tool: Azerbaijan also uses the South Azerbaijan factor as a strategic deterrent against Iran’s aggressive policies, especially concerning the Zangezur Corridor. This approach neutralizes its rival without military confrontation, using ideological and diplomatic levers.

Conclusion: Azerbaijan – The New Strategic Nexus of Eurasia

Thanks to the strong foundations laid by Heydar Aliyev and the resolute leadership of President Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan has ascended to a qualitatively new geopolitical status. Today, Azerbaijan is:

• The military and political leader of the South Caucasus;

• A key regulating actor at the intersection of Eurasia’s East-West and North-South energy and transport corridors;

• The driving force behind the political, economic, and ideological integration of the Organization of Turkic States;

• A practitioner of an effective “soft power” strategy through the South Azerbaijan factor against regional rivals.

By securing physical integration through the Zangezur Corridor, economic connectivity via the Middle Corridor, and moral unity through ideological diplomacy, Azerbaijan is not only safeguarding its national interests but also emerging as the central power shaping the strategic future of the entire Turkic world.